I think it’s fairly well known I think former Vice President Joe Biden will win in November. I’ve provided fairly detailed explanations why. I have also made clear I think President Donald Trump can come back and win. But I don’t think who actually wins in November matters. Let me explain.
First, let me make clear what I think will happen. I think Democrats will easily hold their majority in the House, the Senate is a true toss-up right now (but I don’t think either side will get more than a two or three vote majority), and Biden will be sworn in as President. Essentially, even if Democrats have the trifecta, I think their Senate majority will be too slim to remove the filibuster and pass significant legislation.
That is what happened from 2017-2019– Republicans had the trifecta but their majority was too slim to pass anything of major significance but a single tax reform bill. If Trump wins, I see no reason why that would change (remember, a party has taken the House and immediately lost it only twice in the last 100 years). When the Obama administration passed multiple significant pieces of legislation– the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and Dodd-Frank –in their first two years they did it with large majorities in the House and Senate.
In short: Washington has become unable to pass anything that isn’t an annual budget or emergency relief in the midst of a historic pandemic. And even those have led to three government shutdowns and weeks of squabbling while Americans worry. That trend will also continue under a Biden administration. Moderate Democrats like Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin will hold up any big accomplishment. Ya he might nominate some Justices and Judges (but unless a conservative seat opens on the Supreme Court he’s unlikely to make any real upheaval to jurisprudence) and pass some executive orders, but that will be about it.