Earlier this summer, we released our election map predictions with 150 days until the election. Now, we are around 100 days until the election and we wanted to update our prediction.
Since my last prediction, my views on President Donald Trump’s reelection chances have diminished. To be clear, I think he has a clear path to victory. I have written about his path on this blog. I just don’t think he will follow it. Over the last 50 days, I have moved Texas, Iowa, and Georgia from safe R to likely R. While I think these states will ultimately stay in the fold– and by a safe margin– I think these states could flip if one of our many crises (COVID, economic, or racial) take a turn for the worst in October. I moved Ohio from likely R to lean R because it is in immediate danger of flipping.
Similarly, I moved Florida and Pennsylvania from lean R to Lean D. Simply put, Joe Biden clearly has the lead in those states now. Michigan also moved from lean D to likely D. This shift reflects my belief Biden’s grip has strengthened there. While I kept North Carolina as lean R, I could have easily flipped it.
The Electoral Map has shifted in favor of Biden. I have changed Ohio to Lean Republican, Minnesota to Likely Democrat and Pennsylvania to Lean Democrat. The Republicans obviously have way more electoral votes in their column that are leans and not solid, which is a serious problem for them. Given Wisconsin’s Republican lean as of late overall between the state government branches, Walkers slight loss and recent voting I am not yet convinced that Democrats will carry the state, or Arizona.