Since the election of Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, a party would hold the White House for 8 years and then the other party would gain it for 8 years, and so on. The only time this pendulum has been broken is when George H.W. Bush rode off of Ronald Reagan’s popularity to victory in 1988, following Reagan’s two terms. While Donald Trump is likely to win in the Fall, even if he did that would place the Republican Party at a disadvantage come 2024 due to this cycle. And if he lost, that would put the Republicans in an even worse position, as it is hard in this era to unseat an incumbent. Therefore, the Republicans need to play their hand well no matter the outcome of the 2020 Election if they wish to occupy the White House in 2024.
Their best bet for President? Greg Abbott. The second Republican to serve as Attorney General of Texas since Reconstruction, and the first U.S. governor of any state to use a wheelchair full time in over 30 years, he is used to making history in a positive way. He is very popular in Texas- in fact, he won by the greatest margin of any statewide official in 2018 when he handily won another term as Governor. In 2014, he also won over 50% of Hispanic men- a huge accomplishment for a Republican. Given his popularity with Hispanics and Texas, he would be a critical vote-getter in the rapidly purpleing states of Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and perhaps elsewhere.
He has good relations with President Trump, which would assure his support and resources, as well as unity, within the party. Abbott has a history of conservatism ranging back decades. He is popular with Conservative Christians, which make up the bulk of the Republican Party. An example of this is his successful defense of Texas openly displaying the Ten Commandments in the State Capitol Building before the Supreme Court in Van Orden v. Perry (2005). He is so pro-gun that he ran ads in New York when Cuomo sought greater restrictions. One such ad ran, “Wanted: Law abiding New York gun owners looking for lower taxes and greater opportunity.”
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He has many policies that Conservatives want, would be a good candidate for unity in the Party, is appealing to several needed factions in 2024, is charismatic and is also inspiring considering his circumstances. If Republicans want to win, he is their best bet, not only by keeping Texas and Arizona in the fold but by reaching out across the country.