Since we know that Biden is the presumptive nominee for the Democrats and Trump/Pence are the obvious choice for the Republicans, the only thing left to decide between the two major parties is who Biden’s VP will be. Based off of Biden, the Democratic Party and history of how parties select the running mates, it is fairly easy to breakdown the possibilities of what type of person- and then who specifically- Biden is eyeing.
First of all, we know for certain it will be a woman. Biden has already confirmed as much in multiple interviews as far back as March that his VP choice would be a woman. Not much surprise there. Even before that it was obvious the Democrats would be leaning hard for a woman to balance out the ticket.
Related: Senate Predictions for 2020
Often a party will try and have the running mate be the opposite of the top of the ticket to balance it out and attract as many voters as possible. This strategy has been employed by both parties for centuries now. Biden is old- at 77 years of age he would be the oldest President elected if he beat Trump. He is white and male, and he is also something of a moderate- and in the past relatively conservative for a Democrat. He is also from Delaware, which has the smallest number of electoral votes you can get at 3.
Based off of this, my analysis is as follows. The Democratic Party will not stop at selecting a woman, but likely a minority woman who is progressive, or at least noticeably more so than Biden. She will also be noticeably younger. She will also be from either a swing state or a large state.
My top guess for who Biden would select if it were today is Kamala Harris. She fits the bill for every one of those qualifications and was also a key endorser of Biden’s as soon as she dropped out. It would not only be a smart move but a political one. I decided to look at CNN’s list to compare and to my surprise we agreed on Kamala being the number one most likely choice.
Other likely picks by Biden would be Stacey Abrams, the black Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia in 2018 who just narrowly lost. She has made something of a cult following for herself. Val Demings is another likely candidate as she is a black Congresswoman from the crucial swing state of Florida. In addition, we know for certain that she is on the shortlist of possible choices according to Biden himself. The last most likely candidate is Catherine Cortez Masto, who is a latina Senator from the swing state of Nevada. Latinos are another important base for the Democrats and she has been mentioned by several news networks as a likely pick, so it could be a smart move on Biden’s part.
I am not saying these would be the best picks. I personally think someone like Senator Klobuchar would be the best pick as she is a popular Senator in a somewhat swing state (Minnesota) but I think it will be otherwise.