November 2020 Predictions

With the 2020 general election matchup all but certain, here are the Chatters staff 2020 predictions. 

Roman: There will be a lot of uncertainty on election night but I think Biden wins by a margin smaller than Obama’s in 2012. Biden has had a consistent four to six point lead in the national RCP average. That stability contrasts with the volatility Hillary experienced in the 2016 RCP average– going from anywhere between a double digit lead to being behind Trump. I think Biden keeps that lead and holds it from now to election day with little change which translates to somewhere between 308 electors with a chance to flip Georgia or Arizona and 269 electors. That said, I think there’s a larger than usual chance of a 270-270 tie. 

Read articles by Roman here

Connor: The election will be close either way. Arizona, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio are all Lean Republican to me, while Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Maine (minus the one electoral vote that trends Republican) are Lean Democrat. It will boil down to who can win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The Democrats know this and that’s why the Democratic Convention is in Wisconsin. I think Trump’s best bets are to focus on Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Since Biden is popular with black voters, for now states with large minority populations like Virginia and Colorado are off the table for Republicans. I predict at the end of the day Trump will win but by less than the 304 electoral vote win he had in 2016. Biden is less able to carry his own in public than Hillary and he will shed even more progressive support than Hillary, which can and will end up squeezing Trump to a victory. 

Read articles by Connor here

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