This is becoming an awful lot like a replay of 2016. Bernie Sanders starts off strong, and suddenly the Democratic establishment is in doubt: can their vaguely moderate and largely unappealing candidate who has been in politics for over a generation suddenly lose to a socialist? As in 2016, the answer will be the same. Ultimately no.
Bernie Sanders had a greater chance of winning this time around. He was the first person from either party to win the popular vote in the first three states in the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Joe Biden, who had previously been the frontrunner, was suddenly on the brink of disaster. He finished 5th in New Hampshire and had failed to gain much traction. With Super Tuesday around the corner, Bernie was sure he could win.
However, things started to unravel with South Carolina. Biden won, which was not that surprising. What was surprising was that he won by over 30%, and also secured 2/3 of the black vote.
Related: Trump’s Greatest Victories
Then came Super Tuesday, which was nothing short of catastrophic for the Sanders Campaign. Bernie won only four states- Colorado, Vermont, Utah and California- to Biden’s 14. Biden even won Bernie’s neighboring state of Massachusetts. And since then there has been no indication that was a fluke. Biden has managed to win other contests in large states such as Illinois, Arizona, Michigan, and even Washington. Biden has a lead of more than 300 delegates. He has 1,217 to Bernie’s 914.
And this is with the vast sums of money Bernie has spent. In February alone his campaign spent $45.8 million, more than threefold what Biden spent at $13.1 million. 538, which has a proven record of predicting outcomes with statistics, gave Biden over a 99% chance of winning the Democratic Primary. Bernie has almost no chance whatsoever of clinching the nomination. Even if he managed to win enough to force a split convention, he would still certainly lose as the establishment is behind Biden.
Forgoing unforeseen circumstances, this is what will happen: Bernie will sooner or later be forced to drop out, and when he does he’ll suddenly forget the bad things he said about Biden and endorse him, citing how they need to focus on beating Trump. And Biden will make it a close election but will lose. Because now that he can’t hide behind Obama everyone is realizing how dementia-ridden and not so clever he is. He will also shed a lot of progressive support. 15% of Bernie supporters said they would switch to Trump if Biden was the nominee.
Even though I disagree with Bernie on most issues, I respect him for at least being more honest about what he wants than most other Democrats. As for Biden, who knows what he wants? I think he forgets half the time.
Nonetheless, I am quite grateful to not have to worry about a realistic chance of Bernie stepping into the Oval Office come January 2021.