Bilan Report College Football Index

Last weekend, on Instagram, I created a basic football index and compared a couple of teams. After asking for feedback, I decided to construct it for the top 16 teams in last week college football ranking. Here is the model:

X= Opponent ESPN FPI

Y= Highest ESPN FPI

Z= Lowest ESPN FPI, in absolute terms

Rank= (X+Z) – (Y-X)

The basic mechanics of the ranking is each win increases your score and the better the win is, the more it increases. Each loses decreases your score proportionate to how bad it was. Movements in your score are determined by weighed FPI’s. Wins are weighed against the lowest FPI while loses are weighed against the highest FPI. So, if you were to beat Bama, your score for the week would consist of Bama’s rank plus the lowest FPI. The reason for weighing against the lowest FPI is because FPI’s can be negative so increasing all scores by the lowest makes all values zero or positive. For loses, they are weighed against the highest FPI. So, if you lost to the highest rated team, you would not lose any points. Just subtracting loses would create a benefit for losing to teams with negative FPI’s (subtracting a negative creates addition) but weighing against the highest FPI fixes this.

To be clear, this is far from a perfect index. This should not be used as the end all be all or used to determine who is better between two close teams. That being said, here are the top 16:

  1. Clemson, 371.4
  2. Georgia, 367.2
  3. Oklahoma, 366.6
  4. Wisconsin, 330.5
  5. Alabama, 307
  6. Ohio State, 304.6
  7. Miami, 297.4
  8. Auburn, 272.5
  9. Notre Dame, 253.3
  10. UCF, 252.6
  11. Penn State,
  12. TCU, 223.3
  13. LSU, 217.9
  14. Stanford, 207.8
  15. Washington, 168.1
  16. Memphis, 166.4

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