The calamitous news for Theresa May comes from the first seat by seat projection for the campaign, and suggests the Conservatives will fall 16 seats short of an overall majority. The polling method has taken into account an unusual technique using a complex computer model.
The YouGov prediction would leave Theresa May with 310 MPs – 20 fewer than at the time of dissolution of the last Parliament – while Labour are set to surge from 229 to 257 MPs on June 8 election, a gain of 28 seats in the Commons.
The shocking scenario could leave Theresa May’s hand weakened ahead of Brexit negotiations – or see her ousted by an opposing coalition government.
Theresa May struggled to pass controversial bills, including changing rules on tax credits, with a 17 seat majority before calling the election.
Experts have branded the rogue poll ‘utter tripe’ and instantly cast doubt on the model. It contradicts every single other poll conducted over the past two years.
Sterling took at hit in early trading today after the publication of the poll and fears grow of a hung parliament.
Nomura’s Jordan Rochester said: “GBP is lower this morning and rightly so as there continues to be polling news that suggests a hung parliament is possible if the trend continues.
“GBP/USD has traded below 1.2800 early in the session, and EUR/GBP back above 0.7820. The move was driven by YouGov’s first constituency-by-constituency estimate of the election that predicts that the Conservative party would obtain 310 seats (down from the current 330) and fall short of an overall majority (by 16 seats), leading to a hung parliament.”
The former Home Secretary called the General Election when her party was 22 points ahead of Labour, however her lead has been slimmed down in a number of polls to just single digits within the space of a few weeks.
The projection, which was carried out for The Times, was based on a complex model and sampled 50,000 people over the course of seven days.
James Morris, who was Ed Miliband’s pollster, added: “At the last election YouGov seat-based model had Labour sauntering home. No doubt they’ve tweaked it but, well, this is rather brave.”
Pollsters have struggled to gain back trust following incorrect predictions in the last UK General Election, the EU referendum and the US presidential run.
But insiders have reassured politicos and bookies they have fixed many of the kinks which led them to get the results of major votes so wrong in previous years.