2016: The Worst Case Scenario

Let us face reality. Unless something dramatic happens Donald Trump is going to lose to Hillary Clinton, the Senate will be taken by Democrats, the Republican majority in the House will shrink and Democrats will regain state government positions they lost over the last several years. It will be a landslide election on all grounds but this is not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is the death of a right wing political coalition capable of winning the Presidency or other political offices.
I fear the current right wing coalition in American politics (the Republican Party) is about to collapse. Donald Trump and Trumpism, right wing nationalism and populism, could fracture the coalition by driving moderate, conservative and libertarian elements away either to the Democratic Party, Independence or minor parties. Conservatives support Donald Trump with 62% and moderates with 33%. Mitt Romney got 82% of conservatives and 41% of moderates.
We also see ALL democratic groups, outside working class whites, fleeing the coalition to the point that there simply isn’t a wide enough coalition to win nationally. Donald Trump is winning as little as 1% of the African American vote. Mitt Romney did marginally better, winning 6%. Donald Trump is winning 19% of Hispanics vs 27% for Mitt Romney. 34% to 44% with women and 41% to 56% with college educated whites.
We are less than a 100 days from the election we have deep red states like South Carolina, Texas and Utah becoming swing or lean states. The permanent addition of Trumpism to the coalition could have driven and could permanently drive out these groups. From the ashes of the collapsed coalition which was the Republican Party we could see the rise of a new coalition which would represent a right wing party in the style of Europe. Nationalism and populism over principled conservatism. A party which is pro government as long as it is in control.
To complement this change in the Republican Party and complete the shift to European politics I think the Democratic Party could become a corporatist, socially liberal and pro-welfare party, much like David Cameron’s Conservative Party. It could potentially become a dominant coalition containing elements from the center right to the center. With such a wide coalition and only a few fractured opponents to both sides I think it would be reasonable that this party could become the dominant party at the national level or at least in the White House.
This worst case scenario leaves out the Progressives, conservatives and libertarians. To start with the Progressives, they could go either way. They could join the new corporatist democratic party and become the left wing faction or they could create their own party, bringing the green party some prominence (low to mid-single digits in Presidential elections and holding state and national legislature seats). The conservatives and libertarians could come together under the leadership of someone like Austin Peterson, who could appeal to both, or they could weaken themselves and each forms their own coalition.
This is the worst option. A center to center left coalition dominating American politics. This is why Donald Trump must be stopped and repudiated for the sake of America’s future. He represents the lefts party to dominating American politics, by distorting the American right by linking the entire right to Trumpism. While Trumpkins may cheer him on and say he will destroy the left and two party state they are only right on one of these grounds. He could destroy the two party state what would replace it is a center to center left one party state where Hillary Clinton and her successors rule without coherent national opposition.
Thankfully this is only the worst case scenario. Thankfully the current situation is looking more and more like anything but the worst case scenario.

2 thoughts on “2016: The Worst Case Scenario

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